Editor's take on Interim Budget 2024: A look at the political setup

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is all set to create history as she rises in parliament in a short moment from now to present her sixth consecutive Budget and the final Budget of the Modi government’s second five-year term.

She's the only Finance Minister after Morarji Desai to present six budgets. Now, will this be Sitaraman’s sixer? That's the big question. A cursory look at the government's economic review shows that it goes into this Interim Budget from a position of confidence both as far as the fiscal situation is concerned and on growth projecting FY25 gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 7%.

Now the question is what will the government build on to deliver the Prime Minister Narendra Modi hat-trick that is what the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is hoping for - its slogan says so Tisri Baar Modi Sarkar, Ab Ki Baar Charsau Paar. So this Interim Budget is going to try and build on that momentum, build on that mood.

The expectations are tempered given the fact that it is an Interim Budget, but it is an important moment for the government, for the Finance Minister to articulate the decade gone by but more importantly signal the times coming up.

The welfare war chest - it was the 2019 Interim Budget when the then Finance Minister Piyush Goyal delivered a new scheme in the form of Pradhan Mantri Kisan Yojana (PM Kisan) to focus on the farmers. The expectation is that PM Kisan’s allocation will be enhanced in the Interim Budget from ₹6,000 to about ₹9,000 and that is accounting for inflation.

The other big one, the PM Garib Kalyan Yojana, was from the COVID program, and that has already been extended ahead of the Budget for another five years. So that has been done and dusted. Tweaking of the Ujjwala scheme, the LPG program has already been seen, and that perhaps could get further boost in the Interim Budget.

The PM Awas Yojana rural housing could potentially be a focus area. So the welfare war chest will be something to watch out for.

The infra imperative, a record historic government capex program has been announced by the government in the previous Budget. The hope is that it will continue to signal that directionally as well as enhance allocations for road railway, defense, etc. And hope is that at least a 20% increase in government capex will certainly be on the table – so one should watch out for that.

The manufacturing aspiration making India manufacturing Magnet - continuation of existing schemes, the production linked incentive (PLI) push, 14 schemes already announced but as CNBC-TV18 has been reporting, the DPIIT Secretary confirming that perhaps two or three PLI schemes will be tweaked. Could the Interim Budget take that forward?

Tariff cuts - to continue to promote domestic manufacturing ahead of the Budget, the duty on components for the mobile manufacturing sector being cut to 10% from 15% has already been seen. More sectors could be impacted in the Interim Budget is what has been given to understand and of course, bringing down logistics costs will be key. That is something that the Economic Review also alluded to.

Female focus ‘Nari Shakti’ - Prime Minister Narendra Modi's comments, at the start of the Budget session or the President's speech, it is very clear, the government intends to focus on females, on women voters, on the women constituency. So could there be an additional scheme, a new scheme or could there be perhaps as far as Mudra and other schemes are concerned, any other tweaks? One will wait to see.

Child care could be something that is taken forward in some form or fashion, perhaps a public private partnership. That's the buzz. One will have to wait to see what the Budget unveils.

Ahead of the Budget already the Road Transport Ministry, putting out a notification saying that there should be parity as far as highway construction is concerned.

Climate call - ahead of the Budget, a new solar rooftop scheme for households being announced by the Prime Minister, that momentum could perhaps be taken forward in the Interim Budget.

Push towards renewables - there is of course the expiration of the current FAME scheme. Will that be renewed or will it be tweaked? One will have to wait to see.

Another scheme for electric vehicle (EV) program, support scheme perhaps in the anvil as well.

So the climate push and the energy transition, perhaps a Green Transition Fund, which is the ask of industry, those will have to be some of the things that one will have to watch out for.