India will shine amid slowdown in global economic growth, says Daiwa Capital

The United States is heading for a recession by mid of 2020 as a number of growth indicators both in the US and in Europe, particularly in developed economies, show a sharper slowdown than what previously anticipated, said Paul Kitney of Daiwa Capital Markets.

“So in terms of inversion of u-curve growth expectations have shifted down. We have also seen globally a pattern of disinflation, so this year synchronized disinflation, now that doesn’t mean negative inflation rates but falling rates of inflation globally,” Kitney further added.

According to him, disinflation will be negative for countries like Japan, Europe and developed markets in general.

Talking about growth, he said, “Growth rates in India and also Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) are significantly higher than they are in most of the emerging market base and we see risk in those countries that are much more geared into the global trade cycle such as Japan, Korea and also Taiwan.”

Kitney remained 'overweight' on India, saying that nice thing about Indian growth is its growth is much less correlated with the global trade cycle. He said Daiwa Capital has been positive on India since November and expect Indian to outperform. He does not expect the rupee to fall further from its current level.