Amid speculations about India potentially imposing a ban on sugar exports during the upcoming season starting in October, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has urged caution and refuted such reports as premature assumptions. The conjecture arises as a result of
decreased sugar cane yields due to inadequate rainfall, leading the government to consider halting shipments for the first time in seven years.
Government sources told CNBC-TV18 that decisions regarding the sugar export policy for the 2023-24 period would be taken at an appropriate time based on available estimates of sugarcane and the sugar season.
Emphasising the impropriety of presuming government decisions prematurely, ISMA asserted that export determinations are typically made in October when the new season commences.
"It’s premature to speculate on exports today. We will request the government in September/October, depending on the crop situation and availability of sugar surplus," ISMA said.
Notably, the government aligns its stance with state governments and "no concrete process has been set in motion yet," ISMA said. "The government is also aligned with the thought, it takes a view from state governments also."
"The process is yet to begin, we have to look at our domestic consumers and then we have to go for an ethanol programme and the third priority will be export. Production after diversion of ethanol is 317 lakh tonnes and our domestic consumption is 275 lakh tonnes, so there will be a surplus of 4 million tonnes, that is the preliminary estimate," it added.
ISMA recently released its Preliminary Estimates of Sugar Production for Sugar Season (October-September) 2023-24, showing a dip in production. Sugar prices have also seen an upward trend in the global market recently due to the influence of the El Nino phenomenon.
A recent report from the International Sugar Organisation adds another layer to the sugar narrative. While the previous year saw a surplus of nearly 500,000 tonnes (initially estimated as 100,000 tonnes surplus), this estimate has been revised. The current year, however, is predicted to experience a deficit of approximately 2.2 million tonnes, consequently influencing sugar prices.
