The Indian economy is estimated to grow at 7 percent in 2022-23, as against the expansion of 8.7 percent in the previous fiscal, the National Statistical Office (NSO) said on Friday.
Releasing the first advance estimates of National Income for 2022-23, the NSO stated, "Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 157.60 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of Rs 147.36 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2022. The growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.0 percent as compared to 8.7 percent in 2021-22."
The output of the manufacturing sector is estimated to decelerate to 1.6 percent as against a growth of 9.9 percent in FY22.
According to the CNBC-TV18 Poll, the FY23 real GDP is estimated at 6.9 percent, nominal GDP is seen growing at 15.8 percent to Rs 269 trillion, and the fiscal deficit works to Rs 17.2 trillion. The deficit for this year can be Rs 60,000 crore higher, without violating the 6.4 percent target.
The manufacturing sector output is estimated to decelerate to 1.6 percent in the current fiscal from 9.9 percent in 2021-22. Similarly, mining sector growth is estimated at 2.4 percent in the current fiscal as against 11.5 percent in 2021-22.
It also said the nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 273.08 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of Rs 236.65 lakh crore. The growth in nominal GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 15.4 percent as compared to 19.5 percent in 2021-22.
The agriculture sector is projected to see a growth of 3.5 percent in FY2022-23, higher than the 3 percent expansion recorded in the previous financial year. Trade, hotel, transport, communication, and services related to the broadcasting segment is estimated to grow at 13.7 percent from 11.1 percent in 2021-22.
Devendra Pant, the chief economist at India Ratings, said 7 percent GDP growth is more on the expected lines. "We were expecting it to be at 6.9 percent. However, our estimate of nominal GDP growth was much higher than 15.4 percent. We expected it to be at 16.5 percent or so," he said.
The financial, real estate, and professional services segment is projected to grow at 6.4 percent in the current fiscal, up from 4.2 percent in 202-22. However, construction sector growth is expected to decelerate to 9.1 percent from 11.5 percent a year ago.
Pronab Sen, the former chief Statistician, said 7 percent GDP growth is along expected lines. However, what this implies is that the growth in the last half of the year will not be very much higher than 4.5 percent or a little higher than that.
"As far as 15.4 percent nominal GDP growth is concerned, I think the NSO is expecting inflation to come down faster than even possibly the Reserve Bank of India has. So I think there is a little bit of optimism built into that," he said.
Similarly, public administration, defence, and other services growth is estimated to drop to 7.9 percent this fiscal from 12.6 percent in FY22. The growth in gross value added (GVA) at basic prices is pegged at 6.7 percent this fiscal, down from 8.1 percent in 2021-22.\
Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at I-Sec PD said, "The nominal GDP growth is pretty much close to our expectation of 15.6 percent. So this should give about Rs 95,000-1,00,000 crore of additional room to the government to run a higher absolute fiscal deficit even if they want to maintain the same deficit in the percentage of GDP terms. So that much is the leeway."
Earlier last month, the Reserve Bank of India had lowered the country's GDP (gross domestic product) growth forecast to 6.8 percent for the current fiscal from 7 percent earlier, on account of continued geopolitical tensions and tightening of global financial conditions.
The RBI had projected the real GDP growth for 2022-23 at 6.8 percent, with the third quarter at 4.4 percent and the fourth at 4.2 percent. It had pared the growth projection for 2022-23 for the third time in December 2022.
In April 2022, the central bank cut the GDP growth estimate from 7.8 percent to 7.2 percent, and further lowered it to 7 percent in September, last year. The GDP growth in the second quarter of the fiscal slowed to 6.3 percent from 13.5 percent in the preceding three months.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) too had reduced India’s growth prediction for FY23 to 6.8 percent from 7.4 percent projected in July 2022. The World Bank, however, has raised India's GDP forecast for the current fiscal to 6.9 percent from its earlier estimate of 6.5 percent. The Asian Development Bank has kept India's growth forecast unchanged at 7 percent for 2022-23.
First Published: Jan 6, 2023 10:40 AM IST
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