India's retail inflation at 5.09% in February, remains within the RBI tolerance band for sixth straight month

The Indian government released the consumer price index data for the month of February on March 12. The consumer inflation stood at 5.09 according to the data published by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.

The inflation level continues to remain within the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance range of 2-6%. The CPI has remained within the RBI tolerance band for six months now.

The Consumer Price Index or CPI measures retail inflation by examining the changes in prices of most common consumer goods and services. CPI is calculated for a fixed list of items including food, housing, apparel, transportation, electronics, medical care, education, etc.

According to a poll by CNBC-TV18, CPI in February was projected at 5.12% against 5.1% in the preceding month, a three-month low. The retail inflation stood at a four-month high of 5.69% in December.

February's core CPI came at 3.37%, the lowest since November 2019, against 3.6% in January. The CNBC-TV18 poll estimated the core inflation at 5.12%.

Akhil Mittal, Senior Fund Manager-Fixed Income of Tata Asset Management, said, "Headline inflation in February 2024 stands at 5.09%, slightly below market expectations of 5% and lower than January's 5.10%. The major contributor was food inflation, registering at 8.66% against 8.3% in January. Core inflation remains below 3.4%, offering significant reassurance and potentially steering headline inflation closer to the RBI's 4% target in the long run.

While the RBI has highlighted the risk of food inflation spilling over into broader inflation, we anticipate the regulator to maintain a cautious stance. However, the softening of core inflation should provide relief. We think RBI would rather continue with stability priority and continue maintaining the 4% inflation target as sacrosanct, and hence we do not see a premature easing from RBI."