Expect the last hike from RBI MPC in this cycle: Morgan Stanley

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) two-day monetary policy (MPC) meeting is underway, and Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the policy decisions tomorrow (April 6). Most economists (90 percent) that CNBC-TV18 spoke to while doing a survey said that they expect the Indian central bank to continue its fight against inflation and follow the US Federal Reserve globally by hiking the lending rate by 25 basis points.

In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist at Morgan Stanley said that he expects the RBI to implement its final rate hike, signalling the end of the current tightening cycle.

He said, “There are a lot of uncertainties around inflation outlook as well as what happens to the Fed policy. So, it would be probably unlikely that the RBI gives a clear signal that this is the last rate hike, but in our forecast, we do think that this is the last rate hike.”

However, Ahya also said that the higher interest rates could pose headwinds for India's economic growth. With borrowing costs increasing, businesses and consumers may face challenges in accessing credit, which could potentially dampen investments and consumption. This, in turn, could impact India's overall economic growth trajectory in the near term.

Despite these potential challenges, Ahya reiterated that India's growth story remains one of the best globally. The country has shown remarkable resilience in recent years, with robust economic expansion driven by factors such as favourable demographics, strong domestic demand, and structural reforms. However, the higher interest rate environment may require careful management to sustain the momentum of India's growth story.

Talking about India's current account deficit, which is a measure of the country's trade balance with the rest of the world. He said that the deficit would likely be in the range of 2 percent in the near term. This suggests that India's imports could potentially outpace its exports, which may impact the overall balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves. However, it's important to note that the current account deficit is subject to various factors such as global commodity prices, exchange rate movements, and policy measures, which could influence the actual outcome.