The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which was signed between India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) a year ago, is currently being reviewed by the key officials of the countries. The pact inked after 88 days of negotiations has been a success with concerns of India's widening trade deficit still hovering over it. A closer look at its fineprint highlights the hits and misses of this mechanism.
The landmark agreement, which was signed in February 2022, aims to boost merchandise trade between the two countries to US $100 billion over the next five years. In the first 11 months of the implementation itself, the non-oil trade hit the US $45.4 billion mark. According to the data by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MOCI), the total trade between India and UAE jumped over US $84 billion in March 2023 from US $73 billion in March 2022. The 16 percent YoY increase was despite the downturn in global trade.
In India, sectors like mineral fuels; electrical machinery (particularly telephone equipment); gems & jewellery; automobiles (transport vehicles segment); essential oils/perfumes/cosmetics and others witnessed significant export growth.
By removing or reducing tariffs on over 80 percent of the product line, CEPA prompted investment in priority sectors like petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, metals (e.g. aluminum, copper), agricultural products and intellectual property. It also offered a platform for cooperation and expansion of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with the elimination of unnecessary barriers to trade.
A lot of labour intensive sectors like pharmaceuticals have been benefitted by the elimination of certain tariffs, believes Jehil Thakkar, Partner, Deloitte India. "For instance in the pharmaceutical industry the tariffs were around 10-15 percent but they are removed now. In terms of gems and jewelleries, the 7.5 percent custom duties on a site have been eliminated. So, overall, I believe the benefits are starting to roll through," he adds.
Speaking after the first meeting of the joint committee of India-UAE on CEPA, commerce minister Piyush Goyal said that the central banks of both nations are actively discussing rupee trade under this mechanism.
"Given the acceptability of Indian payment systems like UPI in many countries now, the possibility is certainly there," says Thakkar. He added that such payment mechanisms lower costs and offer ease in doing business. Clearly such an arrangement will benefit India, he believes.
Additionally, the UAE has promised to grant 1.40 lakh visas to highly skilled Indian workers by 2030. Also, export-oriented industries like textiles, handlooms, and footwear are expected to create over 1 million jobs.
Although this arrangement has been a success, the concerning factor from India's point of view is its widening trade deficit, which has gone beyond US $15 billion. India's exports to the UAE grew by 11 percent to US $20.25 billion and at the same time, imports climbed by 24.4 percent to US $ 36.23 billion. A year ago, the trade deficit number was at US $10.89 billion.
While addressing this concern, India's ambassador to the UAE, Sunjay Sudhir had said that widening trade deficit is a result of spiking oil prices.
"The trade deficit by itself is not a massive concern," mentions Thakkar. He adds that if looked at in context of our overall trade deficit, like India has with China or other nations, it is not a big figure. According to him, it is important to look at the whole picture that is created by this agreement.
Overall, this agreement remains progressive and it will keep refining itself to make trade easier for both the nations.
