Rektember, Uptober and a look at the cyclical nature of Bitcoin

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are said to be cyclical in nature. This means that a price rally is generally followed by a sell-off, which is then followed by another rally, and the process repeats itself over and over again.

It is a pattern that has become more and more apparent over the last few years, especially in September and October. So much so that these two months have since been renamed ‘Rektember’ and ‘Uptober’ in the cryptosphere. Tag along as we explain the logic behind these monikers and why they offer some hope amid the bitter crypto winter we find ourselves within.

September is generally a bad month for the crypto industry, particularly Bitcoin. Over the last nine years, Bitcoin has had seven Septembers in the red, with an average decrease of 6 percent in the month. This has earned September the infamous title of Rektember.

This year too, crypto prices stayed true to the September trend, with Bitcoin registering a 3.3 percent price drop between the start and the end of the month. ETH also dropped from $1,557 on September 1 to $1,348 on September 30, equating to a 15 percent drop for the month.

Rekt is crypto slang for wrecked. It refers to someone who has experienced a heavy financial loss due to a poor investment or trade. It could also refer to an asset that has lost significant value over time. However, Rekt is not the same as a complete realised loss. This is because rekt investments can still bounce back over time, bringing us to Uptober.

October is the complete opposite of September in terms of market performance. Bitcoin has been in the green seven times over the last 9 Octobers, with the only red Octobers coming in 2018 and 2019.

Last year, the global market cap of the crypto industry increased from $1.9 billion on October 1 to $2.6 billion on October 31, translating to a 36 percent increase for the month. Another big Uptober was in 2013 when BTC rallied nearly 60 percent for the month. All these signs point to a potential price rally and a possible reversal of the bear market we currently find ourselves in.

Uptober hasn’t lived up to expectations so far. While previous years have seen massive price rallies, the current Uptober has started with price drops. Bitcoin has lost more than 2.5 percent of its value since the start of the month, whereas ETH has dropped 4 percent in the same period. The global market cap of the crypto industry also dipped from $947 billion at the end of September to $928 billion at the time of writing. As such, it’s not a good start to a month that is generally associated with skyrocketing prices.

While September 2022 stayed true to its Rektember title, Uptober is still trying to find its feet. Prices have been on the decline since the start of the month, but there is still plenty of time for a potential turnaround. However, one shouldn’t overly depend on Uptober for a price increase. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, and this October could turn out to be an outlier from the general trend, like 2018 and 2019.