IBLA 2023 | Piyush Goyal on politics, business and economy — full transcript

Union Minister of Commerce Piyush Goyal, during a freewheeling chat with Network18 Editor-in-Chief Rahul Joshi at the 19th edition of CNBC-TV18's India Business Leadership (IBLA) held in Mumbai on Saturday, December 2, held forth on a range of issues, from politics to business to economy. Interestingly, Goyal, in response to a question, predicted that the BJP would win three of the four states for which election results were to be declared on Sunday — a prediction that came true.

A: That can be your assessment. For us, BJP was winning yesterday, is winning today and will be winning tomorrow.

A: We are winning in both the states comfortably.

A: Traditionally, the elections in Chhattisgarh have always been a percent here or there. We have experienced it over many elections—1% or 2% and the result in Chhattisgarh changes. The difference this time is that the Bastar region has been very good for the BJP, it was traditionally a weak link in our electoral victories. So looking at the feedback we got in Bastar, we may land up with a good win there also.

A: It is good that they keep winning sometimes so that Rahul Gandhi remains in focus. We feel for good competition, Rahul Gandhi should be in front.

A: I said 303 because we were running surveys and we were getting feedback from all over the country. Looking at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity at the current moment – on a lighter note, two weeks ago in San Francisco, the Mexican President was talking to me about Prime Minister Modi’s popularity from 2014 till now at the international level, and he says from 2014 to 2023, every single week PM Modi has been top of the charts worldwide. But for one week in nine-and-half-years, I beat PM Modi and the Prime Minister was immensely happy about it. However, the way I look at the country’s picture, I see very little possibility of losing any seats from the 303 that we had won. You may land up with an occasional mishap here or there, but chances are that most of the Northwestern belt, which is Himachal, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh, gave us a clean sweep and we will continue to get that.

In Uttar Pradesh, last time we got about 64 seats. My own sense is this time we will go for the jugular and look at 80 seats, but we will not be less than 77-78 in Uttar Pradesh.

What Yogi Adityanath has done in Uttar Pradesh is bring back sanity —law and order, and he has brought confidence among the people of UP back again.

And by the way, we won Rampur also. So we are looking at a 77-78 in UP which gives us an additional 13 seats.

In Chhattisgarh we had 10 out of 11, maybe we will repeat that or one or two seats plus or minus.

In West Bengal, we had 18—we could go up to 20 this time because if you recall last time, we missed out on the Calcutta belt. Karnataka will again be a clean sweep. In Maharashtra, the BJP on its own will gain some seats. We had 23, this time we hope to go up to 27-28 at least. So in total, we will be looking at winning 330-335 seats.

A: Whebever I went to Karnataka during elections, they said that they would not vote for the BJP in the local assembly election, but in the same breath they would say for Delhi, Modi is our leader.

A: T me one vote that Mamata Banerjee will add anywhere outside West Bengal. Show me one vote that Akhilesh Yadav can add outside the state of Uttar Pradesh, what will Uddhav Thackeray add anywhere outside Maharashtra, in fact now he has no party left in Maharashtra. So, I suspect he won't be adding any votes to that conglomeration even in Maharashtra. So if you look at the individual elements of this UPA in its new format and new name, I don't think they really bring much to the table. On the contrary, there'll be a serious risk of erosion of votes, because first of all, they cannot decide on a leader. Second, if they do decide on the leader that we would like them to decide, then we may look at bigger numbers than 330. Thirdly, if they don't come up with a leader and are going to fight as a disparate set of individuals, then I think the people of India don't want the kind of coalition politics they've seen for 30 years before Narendra Modi came in. We don't want a corrupt government or a government which gives excuses of the compulsions of coalition politics. The country today wants a decisive leader, a leader who means business, a leader who delivers, who's made us the fifth largest economy in the world, who commits to making us the third largest in the next three or four years and who guarantees to make us prosperous, a developed nation when we celebrate 100 years of independence.

A: We respect the verdict of the people. Every election is a standalone election. And we must grant that they have won Karnataka, we must grant that they won a few states, Himachal they have won. But that is part of politics, that's the way public life is, there are several factors in each election. But on the national stage, the way the country has progressed in the last 10 years, the kind of benefits that the people of India have got without discrimination, the empowerment of the common man, so that the young men and women of India move away from the day-to-day problems of roti, kapda, makan, pani, bijli — we've taken all of this out of the lexicon of an Indian. Today these are granted to every family, and that's where 140 crore Indians derive inspiration to aspire for a better quality of life.

What Modi has done is change the aspiration of the common man. He's now looking at a good quality of life, he's now looking for the good things in life, and that is what is driving the Indian economy. Even in Q2 this year we have grown 7.6%, which is far beyond every analysts' expectations.

A: Very clearly, Prime Minister Modi believes that we have to empower people not weaken them. We should not be looking at a society of people dependent on doles or dependent on government gratis, which is why all his programmes are focused on saturation to every individual and every family. He never discriminates on the basis of caste, religion, creed, or language, we don't look at any state from the lens of whether they voted for the BJP or didn't vote for the BJP. We strive to ensure good things happen in everybody's lives. We empower them to be more aspirational to look at a brighter future for the children. The demographics are in our favour, we have an under-30 population today. And we are expected to be under-30 for the next 30 years. This young population in a country which has two-thirds of its people in the working age, is going to drive demand in the country. The culture of quality and sustainability has seeped into the nation today and my sense is in less than 30 years, this young under-30 population will add $30 trillion to our economy. By 2047 we'll have a per capita income of close to $20,000. And that's going to be the future which will drive India to greater heights.

A: India believes in the rule of law. We are very, very proud that this is a country, which goes strictly by the rules of the land and rules of international diplomacy. Under any condition, under any circumstances, I don't think anybody in India can ever imagine government-sponsored activities of the type that are being alleged. We are already seeing that there were fights amongst the criminal gang lines, both in Canada, in the US—whoever is responsible for it should be brought to the book. We have already instituted an inquiry to find out if there are any more details, but I can assure you that the government of India does not do these things. The Government of India, the people of India, if at all we had to really engage in this kind of activity, there were much bigger fish. I think we are a country which proudly upholds the rule of law. And whatever may be the allegations, I'm very confident that all of those are baseless.

A: I've been doing some maths around this, even if we were to grow in real terms at say 7% for argument's sake, though personally my belief is given the strong fundamentals of our economy today, given the fact that we have a young working age population in the country today, and the enthusiasm that you see amongst the youth of India today, my sense is it will be accelerating our growth as we move forward, particularly with the large investments being made in technology, the large investments being made in building infrastructure for tomorrow, the focus on renewables and sustainability, and on meeting the Sustainable Development Goals, I do believe that we'll be inching up to a double-digit growth number. But even if for a moment, we take 7% and we look at about 4-4.5% as our inflation level, which has been the average of the last nine-and-half years—the lowest that independent India has ever seen in a decade; we have had nominal growth of about 11-11.5%, the rupee is quite stable. In fact, we have outperformed most other emerging economies. So even if we were to depreciate for a year by a percent, we are growing at 10% in US dollar terms. So about seven years to double our economy in US dollar terms. So it should not take more than 27 years to be a $35 trillion economy.

A: I was a boy from Mumbai, but now I also have to see prices of onion and potatoes daily when I get up in the morning. But it's truly been an enriching experience working in the Consumer Affairs Ministry and the food ministry. In fact, when the Prime Minister took the decision to give free food grains to 81.35 crore Indians for the next five years, it really was a matter of great satisfaction and happiness. And I still remember—I was in Mumbai the day that file came for signature and it was a poignant moment for me, signing the file under Prime Minister Modi's directions, ensuring that the people of India will get free food grains so that no child in our country ever has to sleep hungry.

At the same time, if you look at the prices over the last 10 years, by and large, inflation has been under control. We've seen the occasional spurt particularly post the Ukraine war, where we saw inflation go up from 4.5% to 7%-odd. But this is the strength of India today. There was a time 10 years ago, when 10-12% inflation was the norm. Today the people of India have become so demanding that even from 4.5% to 6% or 7% is not acceptable, and that's what we like about the new India, the fact that the country is becoming aspirational and demanding.

Onions have seen a little bit of a problem. The last time around the crop was low, then the rains got delayed. So kharif crop was delayed by about two weeks, we've had late kharif, and recently we've had rains coming back again. But we've taken effective steps, we've introduced the minimum export price to bring down the exports of onions. Before this, tomatoes went up; we've launched Bharat atta. Now I'm thinking of launching Bharat rice. So I'll become a large retailer very soon. The idea is to make sure the poor, less privileged sections of society can get their staple diet, their day-to-day needs at an affordable price. This is a proactive government, we remain a step ahead of the curve. And I can assure the people of India that we will make sure that you continue to get your food stuff at affordable prices.

A: I think Elon Musk is so active on X, that he will be the person who will let us know when Tesla is setting up in India. But I can tell you one thing for sure, the age of electric vehicles has arrived. In another two or three years, I see almost 100% of new two-wheeler sales being electric. In three-wheelers, we are already close to 100% electric, some of them may be CNG-driven. In four-wheelers we are less than 2% about 50,000 cars out of four million cars which are sold. But I do know that Maruti doesn't have a model as yet, they are planning to come out with something soon. Tata is already active in the electric vehicle space, Mahindra has come out with some fantastic offerings. So we will have Tata, we will have Mahindra, I do believe Maruti Suzuki after their merger with Toyota already has hybrids, but they're now coming out with an electric version in the next 6-8 months. So we'll see a lot of action on four-wheelers. Therefore Tesla would not like to miss the bus.

I had made a prediction, I think it was on your channel, at the Overdrive Awards in 2016 or 2017, where I just made an off-the-cuff remark that by 2030 I see all cars being sold in India being electric vehicles. Today, I feel strengthened to say that, that is right before my eyes, another seven years and every new vehicle sold in India will be an electric vehicle. Can you imagine the game-changing dimension to the national economy when we reduce our crude oil imports, when our petrol-diesel consumption comes down, imagine the strength the Indian economy will have, imagine the reduction in carbon or the fuel smoke that we see all over the country. So I do believe we are well on track. Tesla cannot afford to miss the bus, they will want the large domestic Indian market.