The Capital Group, a highly regarded and among the largest global institutional investors has put a question to its readers in its latest essay - "Will India be the breakout EM this decade?" It has answered this question in the affirmative.
The $2.2 trillion asset manager explains its thinking in nine points - covering everything from reforms under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the build out of infrastructure, tailwinds for manufacturing, the size of India's equity market and its share in global indices, China plus one and the opportunity from energy transition to demographic.
Here's a brief summary of the Capital Group's thinking on the India opportunity, in their own words:
'We believe India is poised for a period of secular growth, fueled by significant expansion in direct & fixed asset investment.'
'From our recent travels around the country, we believe indications are pointing in the right direction: Corporate confidence is high, the economy is expanding at a decent clip and technological innovation is leading to new areas of growth.'
'Since PM Narendra Modi took office in 2014, he & his team have helped usher in pro-business reforms that have accelerated growth by facilitating the expansion of credit and bringing large swaths of the economy into the formal sector.'| Date | Event |
| May 2014 | Narendra Modi becomes Prime Minister |
| September 2014 | Make In India Campaign Starts |
| July 2015 | Digital India Initiative Unveiled |
| March 2016 | Real Estate (Regulation & Development) Act Is Enacted |
| Apr-16 | National Digital Payment System (UPI) Launched |
| May-16 | Parliament Approves Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code |
| Jul-17 | New Nationwide Tax System - GST, Goes Into Effect |
| Mar-20 | Production Linked Incentives Program Kicks Off |
| Sep-20 | Four Labour Codes Enacted To Simplify Labour Laws |
The reforms have also helped bolster Indian equities. From the time Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in May 2014, the MSCI India index has more than doubled in value, compared to just a 21 percent rise in the MSCI Emerging Markets index.
'The lack of infrastructure has been a major impediment to unlocking India's true growth potential. Over the past 5 years, the government has pumped billions into building out roads, railroads, airports & seaports.'
'We anticipate India will become a desirable location for companies looking to diversify their supply chains outside of China. That said, it likely has many years to go before it can challenge China as a global manufacturing powerhouse. On the flip side, the upside looks promising.'India Trails China In Supply Chain Infrastructure
| India | China |
| Per Capita GDP, 2021 (In $) | 2,257 | 12,556 |
| Industrial Parks | 4,000+ | 2,500+ |
| Highway Length (In KM) | 1,46,000 | 1,69,100 |
| Rail Length (In KM) | 68,200 | 1,55,000 |
| Major Ports | 13 | 34 |
| Airports | 153 | 248 |
'We expect potential investment opportunities to increase, especially in the small-cap space given India's economic trajectory'
India's equity market is expanding in the small and midcap space. In 2010, 26 companies exceeded $10 billion in market capitalisation, a number that has now increased to 60 as of date.
'Investment opportunities span real estate, financials and industrials.'
'The energy transition is potentially transformational for India - the payoff could be massive: India is a large importer of oil and gas, so more renewable power would make it more energy independent.'
'Demographics are the biggest advantage. With a median age of 29 years, India, in our view, has one of the most attractive demographic profiles among the world’s largest economies and can reap benefits from its productive capacity, provided the right policies are in place.'
