ITC expected to post strong results but FMCG margins may shrink

ITC’s standalone revenue is expected to jump 22.5 percent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 14,950 crore in the April-June quarter results as per a CNBC-TV18 poll estimate. The Kolkata-headquartered cigarettes-to-hotels conglomerate is set to announce its first-quarter earnings on Monday. It had posted a revenue of Rs 12,217.1 crore in the same period a year ago.

CNBC-TV18 poll expects ITC’s profit after tax (PAT) to come in at Rs 4,050 crore, registering a sharp 34.5 percent jump YoY. ITC had posted a PAT of Rs 3,019.5 crore in the year-ago period.

ITC may post an over 29 percent EBITDA at Rs 5,150 crore YoY as per the poll, against Rs 3,992.16 crore, the FMCG firm reported in the June quarter last year. ITC margins are expected to come in at 34.4 percent as per the CNBC-TV18 poll, against its 32.7 percent reported in April-June 2021.

ITC’s cigarette volume growth is seen between 25 and 28 percent, while FMCG margins are expected to dip 20-30 basis points quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) due to higher input costs.

ITC’s hotels business is expected to see a strong revival on-year basis given the opening after the second wave of the COVID-19-induced pandemic last year. The company’s paper and agribusinesses are also expected to post strong performance.The Street will be closely watching the management commentary on ITC’s hotels demerger plan, as indicated recently by Chairman Sanjiv Puri during the annual general meeting (AGM) of shareholders and in a CNBC-TV18 interview.

"We will take it forward in line with industry recovery dynamics. So all the indications now are that the industry is on a positive trajectory. So, that is where it stands, it's very much on the table," Puri told CNBC-TV18.

Given the volatility this year owing to inflation and monetary tightening, ITC has emerged as a good defensive bet with many brokerages and analysts giving positive commentary on the FMCG major.

ITC earnings may nearly triple in the next two years as the well-diversified FMCG firm's cigarette sales are picking up, Gautam Duggad, Head of Research-Institutional Equities, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said on July 14, while adding that the domestic brokerage turned positive on ITC a month ago.

Edelweiss Securities' Abnessh Roy too has also given a 30 percent weightage to ITC in the firm's model portfolio and raised the target to Rs 340-345.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are also on a buying spree in ITC with an additional 2.69 percentage point stake bought by them in the diversified FMCG firm during the first six months of CY22. FPIs' holding in ITC has increased to nearly 13 percent as of June 30, 2022, from almost 12 percent at the end of the March 2022 quarter.

So far this year, ITC stock price has outperformed Sensex, gaining over 38 percent against the frontline BSE index. The one-month return on ITC is more than 10 percent against Sensex’s 8.5 percent gain.

On Friday, the ITC stock price settled at Rs 302.95, mildly lower by 0.13 percent on BSE.