India's operational fleet continues to be severely constrained and close to 200 aircraft are expected to be grounded by the end of 2023-24 fiscal, aviation consultancy firm CAPA Advisory said in a mid-year guidance on November 28.
The aviation consultancy firm is of the view that at least 200 aircraft may be grounded due to various supply chain issues and for maintenance purposes by the end of FY24.
As per CAPA’s data, 161-166 aircraft are currently grounded. Of this, 55 belong to India’s largest airline IndiGo, 54 to Go First (since May when it filed for voluntary insolvency), 25-30 to Air India and 27 to SpiceJet, which are not operating because of strategic issues.
However, CAPA estimates that by the end of the current financial year, Indigo’s inoperative fleet may surpass 90 aircraft, primarily due to supply chain issues while GoFirst’s entire fleet is likely to remain grounded until March 2024.
CAPA also believes that the large number of grounded aircraft may lead to a shortage of parking bays, with aircraft having to be parked at hangars and MROS across the country. If the number of groundings increase, the parking challenges will become more acute, it said.
By the end of this year, out of a projected 789 aircraft on the register, only 588 are expected to be operational.
The aviation consulting body, however, asserted that despite the sudden exit of Go First in May 2023, over 150 grounded aircraft and the worsening supply chain issues, domestic traffic has shown resilience.
“Indian aviation is continuing its robust growth in FY2024, in line with CAPA Advisory's projections released in Mar-2023. Both domestic and international traffic are still expected to end the year close to our original forecasts,” it said.
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CAPA expects domestic traffic to reach around 155 million passengers in FY24 or 15% higher YoY while it sees international traffic reaching around 70 million passengers.
It added that Air India Group is expected to add over 60 aircraft by the end of FY24. This includes 30 for Air India, 20 for Air India Express and over 10 for Vistara.
IndiGo is likely to see an operational fleet of over 275 aircraft by the end of FY24 as it plans to negotiate lease extensions for its current fleet and induct aircraft on wet lease. The Air India group, on the other hand, is expected to see an operational fleet of over 260 aircraft by March 2024.
Akasa’s operational fleet may only be 25 aircraft due to decline in aircraft delivery, CAPA said, adding that SpiceJet shall too have an operational fleet of 28 aircraft, which is a significant reduction as per CAPA’s earlier estimates.
Airlines like IndiGo and SpiceJet have resorted to inducting aircraft on wet lease to bridge the shortfall in capacity. Up to 30 wet leased aircraft are expected to operate in India by March 2024, the aviation consulting firm said.
(Edited by : Kanishka Sarkar)
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