homeaviation NewsBoeing forecasts return of pre COVID air traffic to India by 2022
Boeing forecasts return of pre-COVID air traffic to India by 2022
In its commercial aviation outlook, Boeing observed that rise in COVID-19 cases in some regions of the country continues to be a “watch item” as it could affect the demand temporarily but the fundamentals for India’s long-term air traffic growth continues to be strong.
By Anu Sharma Apr 7, 2021 7:56:29 PM IST (Updated)
Boeing on Wednesday forecasted India's domestic air traffic demand to return by the second half of 2022 and said that it expects the pre-pandemic air traffic level in the country to double by 2030.
In contrast, full recovery in international air traffic is likely through 2023.
In its commercial aviation outlook, Boeing observed that the rise in COVID-19 cases in some regions of the country continues to be a “watch item” as it could affect the demand temporarily but the fundamentals for India’s long-term air traffic growth continues to be strong.
Boeing expects India to take 2,230 aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years, with single-aisle aircraft deliveries pegged at 1,960 and wide-body at 260. Out of the total aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years, 79 percent are expected to be growth and 21 percent are likely to be for replacement. This is expected to create employment for 90,000 new pilots, technicians, and cabin crew staff, Boeing added.
The COVID-19 pandemic hit the aviation industry globally in March 2020 and the air traffic is still recovering. Over 15,000 aircraft were parked during March-April of 2020 across the world when several countries were in lockdown.
Currently, 75 percent of single-aisle aircraft, 65 percent of wide-body aircraft, and 100 percent of freighter aircraft have returned to service. In fact, cargo segment has been a success story since 2020 with dedicated freighters capacity now up by 29 percent since 2019 levels while widebody passenger belly capacity down by 52 percent.
Globally, passenger flight operations are at 50 percent of 2019 levels and cargo flights are at 120 percent of 2019 levels. In addition, 75As per IATA, domestic traffic on an average in the world had reached 53 percent of 2019 levels and international traffic had recovered to 14 percent of 2019 levels.
India was also severely affected due to the pandemic and the year-end air traffic levels of 2020 were almost near 2015 figures. However, India continues to be the fastest-growing aviation market in the world as per Boeing forecast of 5 percent annual growth over the next 20 years, followed by China at 4.3 percent. Boeing expects VFR (visiting friends and relatives) traffic to recover first, followed by leisure traffic and business travel.
Boeing also added that the process for resumption of Boeing B737 MAX service in India is currently ongoing and all stakeholders are involved in the discussions.
“We have provided all information asked by DGCA… DGCA is also in discussions with FAA…Timeline for resumption of MAX in India is up to DGCA,” Salil Gupte, President of Boeing India said. Currently, there are 182 Boeing B737 MAX aircraft in service and these are being flown by 20 airlines.
