December Auto sales preview: Analysts expect robust growth for Bajaj Auto, TVS, Hero but CVs may remain weak

The automobile sector is poised to maintain its upward trajectory in December 2023, with analysts anticipating sustained growth across various segments year-on-year (YoY). According to the CNBC-TV18 poll, the industry is expected to showcase positive performance.

Bajaj Auto, with total sales, is projected to surge by 25%, reaching 3.51 lakh units compared to 2.81 lakh units in the corresponding period a year ago.

Hero Moto is anticipated to witness a substantial 10% increase in total sales, reaching 4.33 lakh units, a significant jump from the previous year's 3.94 lakh units.

TVS Motor is also expected to showcase robust growth, with total sales predicted to surge by 30%, reaching 3.14 lakh units.

However, the growth outlook for Eicher Motors Royal Enfield sales  appears more modest, with a slight 0.4% increase in total sales, reaching 68,667 units compared to 68,400 units YoY.

In the 4-wheeler segment, Maruti is expected to lead the pack with a 5.5% growth in total sales, reaching 1.47 lakh units compared to 1.39 lakh units YoY.

Conversely, Ashok Leyland is projected to face a 4% decline in total sales, falling to 17,400 units from 18,138 units YoY.

Tata Motors is expected to see a marginal 1% increase, reaching 75,233 units compared to 74,356 units YoY.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) Auto, on the other hand, is expected to post a robust 19% growth in total sales, reaching 67,550 units.

However, M&M Tractor may experience a 2.5% decline in total sales, dropping to 22,667 units from 23,243 units YoY.

Jefferies analysts predict significant volume growth for Bajaj Auto and TVS in the range of 25-36% YoY. They also anticipate volume growth of 10-18% YoY for Royal Enfield, Maruti, Hero, and M&M. However, Tata Motors may see a more modest 2% YoY growth, while Ashok Leyland could face a 5% YoY decline.

Nomura's insights suggest a positive outlook for the industry, with wholesale volumes expected to rise by 12% YoY for 2-wheelers, 4% YoY for M&HCV, and 2% YoY for passenger vehicles. The margin outlook, however, hinges on discounting trends.

Antique analysts anticipate overall volume growth driven by 2 and 3-wheelers, although volumes are expected to cool down sequentially across segments. Channel checks indicate moderate YoY growth in passenger vehicle retails, while 2 and 3-wheelers are expected to register high double-digit growth on a lower base.

Commercial vehicles (CVs) may remain weak due to lower LCV demand and a higher base. Demand moderated in the second half of the month, attributed to an inauspicious period (Mal Mas).