The Indian automobile sector is projected to see passenger vehicle (PV) sales in December 2022 grow 15 percent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, despite ending on lower figures as compared to November 2022 amid production constraints, revealed key brokerages.
According to equity research firm Emkay, supply constraints are persisting due to electronic component shortages, which may continue in the subsequent months. It added that among automakers, Mahindra’s domestic volumes are likely to grow by 64 percent and Tata Motors will see a 25 percent rise compared to the same period in last year sales. Maruti Suzuki, on the other hand, is expected to decline 4 percent due to a six-day maintenance shutdown.
The report also revealed that two-wheelers (2W) volume growth to be positive YoY. 2W industry volumes are expected to improve more than 15 percent. The brokerage firm expects domestic volumes to improve by 25 percent for TVS Motors, 9 percent for Hero MotoCorp, and 2 percent for Bajaj Auto, whereas they should slightly decline by 3 percent for Royal Enfield.
Moreover, CVs are likely to continue with their double-digit growth and are expected to grow in double digits with over 10 percent YoY rise amid robust demand in both passenger and cargo segments. Emkay expects positive growth at 27 percent YoY for Ashok Leyland, 22 percent for Mahindra, 12 percent for Eicher Motors-VE Commercial Vehicles, and 1 percent for Tata Motors in the domestic market.
Another research firm Jefferies expects wholesales to be up by around 24-36 percent YoY for Mahindra and Ashok Leyland and nearly 4-14 percent YoY growth for Tata Motors, TVS Motors and Maruti Suzuki. It also expects the sales volumes to fall 5-13 percent YoY for Royal Enfield, Hero MotoCorp and Bajaj Auto in December.
Global markets research firm Nomura, on the other hand, expects PVs to grow over 12 percent, CVs to rise more than 13 percent and 2Ws to grow 9 percent YoY. However, in terms of December auto sales, Nomura says that CV will stay healthy and 2W demand to slow with no recovery in sight. It also expects PV demand to show signs of a slowdown.
December 2022 - Wholesale volume expectations:
| Manufacturer | Dec-22 | Dec-21 | YoY% | MoM% |
| Ashok Leyland | 14.5 | 12.5 | 16% | 0% |
| Bajaj Auto | 299 | 362.5 | -18% | -2% |
| Royal Enfield | 65 | 73.7 | -12% | -8% |
| VECV | 5.7 | 6.2 | -7% | 16% |
| Hero Motocorp | 400 | 394.8 | 1% | 2% |
| Maruti Suzuki | 143 | 153.1 | -7% | -10% |
| M&M | 76.1 | 57.4 | 32% | -14% |
| Tata Motors | 71.6 | 69.8 | 3% | -5% |
| TVS Motor | 257.3 | 250.9 | 2.50% | -7% |
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| Source: Nomura estimatesVolumes ('000 units) | | | | |
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